Admittedly, math was never my best subject in high school. Basic math I could comprehend, but when it came to trigonometry, calculus and geometry I struggled mightily.
I was reminded of these challenges recently when I attended a Ward 5 meeting hosted by Councillor Sharman to discuss development planned or underway within the ward. During the meeting officials from the Planning Department provided a detailed overview of the planning process, including showcasing the Pipeline to Permit dashboard. For those who may not be familiar P2P is an online tool for tracking the progress of development applications from inception through to completion. A Committee oversees the application of this tool, and is comprised of a number of elected officials and business representatives. Their mandate is to help the city meet its planning targets. In theory, this is all good.
https://burlingtonpublishing.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=72025
As the PowerPoint slide was displayed on the screen I looked at the numbers. Evidently, Burlington’s target is 29,000 units built by 2031. Supposedly, there are 44,068 in the pipeline. Even with my rudimentary math skills, the numbers would seem to suggest that Burlington is well on its way to meeting its targets, and then some.
As I looked at the slide in more detail it showed that 6,380 units were under review. Nearly 4,000 were being appealed to the Ontario Land Tribunal. Just under 4,800 were awaiting site plan applications. Nearly 5,800 were awaiting planning approval. Even allowing for delays and unexpected events doesn’t it seem logical Burlington will meet its target?
Not so, apparently. In the meeting we were told that 88% of the units being contemplated are in high rise developments. Many of these are condos. Then we were told that many developers are holding back on their developments because of high interest rates, weakening demand, and uncertain economic conditions.
According to a recent article in the Toronto Star, sales of condos in Toronto are “catastrophic”. Condo prices are down 2.6%, and are expected to drop even more. Excess supply and weakening demand plagues the housing sector. According to one realtor, the condos being built are too small, and are not what prospective buyers want.
So, to recap: we have a housing crisis in Canada, a provincial government with a policy of intensification that is intended to open up lands for development and promote new housing construction, developers who are building housing units (a.k.a. high-rise condos) that buyers aren’t buying, and prospective buyers who aren’t buying because the housing being constructed isn’t what they want, is too small, and is considered too expensive for what they are getting. Sounds like a study in contrasts!
As I listened to Councillor Sharman’s explanation of these unsettling market conditions I found it ironic, indeed, almost comical, that a development industry suffused with planning experts, financial analysts, engineers and marketing specialists can’t grasp a simple economic concept; namely, that when you have reduced demand and increasing supply you have lower prices. Equally disturbing is the lack of market awareness. Many new Canadians come from countries where multi-generational households are the norm. That is why communities such as Brampton are so appealing because single-unit family dwellings can be sectioned into separate living quarters. Try doing that in a 20 storey one bedroom condo.
So, why not just pivot and build the housing stock that people actually want? Why is it that in Montreal there is a supply of 2 and 3 bedroom units in duplexes and triplexes in the downtown core, but not in urban centres like Burlington? Why is it that in communities like Sarnia, Port Dover and Tillsonburg I can purchase a small bungalow, but not in Burlington? Why is it that mall locations being considered for re-development have high-rise towers as part of the development plan instead of townhouses? Why are we building high rise developments at GO stations to facilitate commuters when these same people could easily purchase comparable units in Toronto at discounted prices and without having to incur commuting costs? And if immigration levels are being cut by the federal government how does this impact overall housing demand?
The developers will say it comes down to profit maximization. Funny thing though: I have yet to see a developer “open the kimono”, and show us the actual numbers proving that. I wonder why? I suspect, like labelling development opponents as advocating NIMBYISM (“Not in My Back Yard”) it is easier to repeat the mantra than expecting people to believe it. To coin a phrase from President Franklin Delano Roosevelt “Repeating a lie a hundred times doesn’t make it true”.
In summary, the City has built a truly lovely dashboard to monitor the construction of housing units, and it looks awesome. They have a nice Committee in place to oversee it all. However, if you or I are looking for any real progress on the housing file anytime soon I suspect we will be waiting a long, long time. The housing problem in this community is seriously awry, and the problem has nothing to do with addition or counting.
Council, aka taxpayers, just spent 15-20 million for a state of the art IT complete with AI. Per Sharman, it was bc our systems were from 1990. That was of course utterly false. A review of the Asset Management Plan showed 98% was in good order, and the 2% that was deemed poor was just some minor software applications. So that there is nice new shiny P2P is hardly a surprise. Bc tracking a project equals results in the slow minds of city council. But it’s nice an shiny.
There is a comment about why not just build what people want? People need to be very careful in assuming they know what that is. As well, in forcing what one group wants on another. In this city, there is a glaring lack of public awareness and so ability to engage. A few people responding to a random survey no one knows about should not be directing anything in this city. This is one of the biggest problems with the loss of a major paper that everyone sees. Not just in Burlington but nationally. No one has time to read a gizzillion links in the city’s newsletters. Council probably counts on that.
A year before Trudeau started dangling $ in front of municipalities to clean up his horrifically mismanaged immigration policies, this council voted in taking away the rights of property owners and allowing multiple units on a single plot, including in areas for single family development. There were 4 people who participated in that meeting, I was one of them. When the news did hit papers, about 90% of people in online forums were against it. Many property owners and as one of those property owners, I agree. Burlington was already 50% other than single family homes. There are scads of townhouses, smaller apartment buildings as well as several high rises in Burlington. People living in areas with single family homes bought those with zoning that they expected to remain. Not have kicked out from under them after years of paying property taxes, mortgage interest and insurance, repairs and maintenance.
Burlington didn’t create the housing crisis. We have undergone more development in the last 30 years, before the immigrant fiasco, than most cities in Ontario. It’s not our burden to fix this problem. Forcing more units in Burlington is simply adding to the problems this city already faces such as out of control traffic congestion and exceptionally poorly designed bus routes. You can’t go ripping up people’s front lawns to turn New into a 6 lane road. Or have kids walking 9 km to school because there are no school buses and taking city transit means a 20 minute detour to the GO since that’s what our transit is designed to line up with.
I don’t disagree the housing issue in Burlington doesn’t have anything to do with math other than the $$$ this mayor wants to get her paws on bc she has no fiscal restraint (see Skyway, Bateman, excessive salaries, Civic Square, etc) and blows thru money like ice melting on a 30C day. But I do disagree with what should be done about it. How about being like other municipalities who need the money far more than Burlington, like Windsor, who rejected taking money with strings such as making 4plexes a right. Taking away owners property rights is anti-democratic. Personally, I think we need to put the brakes on development in this city and start focusing on fixing the problems we have. When that’s done, then we can reconsider.
Great article and comment, something that has consumed me for some time now, who benefits and who doesn’t from the strange goings on around us, money, power, or simply a desire for acceptance.